Portugal

After digesting the details of a rescue plan for Greece, traders have marked back Spanish and Italian sovereign debt following a brief relief rally on Friday. Secondary market activity was subdued on Monday, and though covered bond spreads have lagged sovereign tightening, making them look relatively cheap, traders said it was never enough to be market moving.

High yields and certain structural attributes have attracted faster money buyers to Portuguese mortgage covered bonds. While traditional investors have left Obrigações Hipotecárias (OH), buyers with high minimum yield requirements have found OH’s structure sound and rates compelling.

Covered bond practitioners say the release of Capital Requirements Directives IV is positive for the sector and broadly similar in outlook to the draft version of Basel III that sealed a structural bank bid for the sector. There have been changes in the way covered bonds are treated by the Liquidity Coverage Ratio, and potentially in the way the Net Stable Funding Ratio is applied. Underlying market sentiment remains negative, as many believe that the sovereign debt crisis is only just beginning.

The euro primary market remained closed on Monday. The secondary market, however, has been more active, with liquidity present for both core and peripheral paper. Even Portuguese bonds have enjoyed interest, as fast money accounts salivate over double digit yields.

Moody’s cut the covered bond ratings of five Portuguese issuers on Friday, following a downgrade of the issuers’ senior unsecured ratings on the same day. The senior unsecured cuts, said Moody’s, were prompted by the downgrade of Portugal’s sovereign debt rating on April 5.

A senior DCM covered bond banker talks to The Cover about the market outlook for the next six weeks which, aside from the sovereign crisis, will also encompass legislative progress on bank resolution regimes, new developments on CRD 4 and how these might impact the covered bond market.

Dealers and investors remain shell shocked by recent events. Despite relatively upbeat comments from the buy side and a continuation of the spread correction, reported secondary activity has been muted. Syndicate bankers are looking towards stabilisation of the Bund/swap spread and do not rule out the prospect of issuance, though it may be limited to taps.

The covered bonds of Portuguese and Irish banks are drawing ever closer to sub investment grade status, though they are likely safe for the summer. Moody’s on Tuesday cut Ireland from Baa3 to Ba1 and assigned a Timely Payment Indicator (TPI) of Very Improbable to all Portuguese mortgage backed covered bonds. Some banks are rated only by Moody’s, though should the sub investment rating Rubicon be crossed, analysts expect the ECB to alter its criteria for repo eligible collateral.

Secondary market dealers reported little trading activity on Tuesday and described the market as being dysfunctional. Despite that, some participants are trying to take advantage of this price opacity. After opening very weak, the market has bounced back on rumoured central bank intervention.

Though the covered bond market remained quiet on Thursday, syndicate officials stressed it had not yet closed for summer. Investors still have cash to put to work, and there is at least one trade expected next week. Negative rating action has damaged market sentiment, however, and closed the window for some peripheral names. Prospective issuers face a forbidding market and increased premiums should they decided to issue.

Crédit Mutuel CIC launched its debut Obligations à l'Habitat on Tuesday, taking supply in the new French format since last Friday to Eu3.8bn. The borrower managed to find a secure window for issuance in a market plagued by negative rating actions to print a benchmark deal in line with its own curve, and that of the wider French market.

Moody’s placed mortgage backed covered bonds issued by Banco Santander Totta (BST) on review for possible downgrade on Friday, after placing BST on rating watch negative on June 9.