Portugal

As a proxy for national mortgage markets, LBBW research has taken a closer look European mortgage pool statistics and macro-economic housing market trends. Controversially, it finds that Spanish NPLs have halved in the last two years. In contrast Scandinavia, which is stereotyped as safer than safe, could be heading for trouble as house prices reach 30-year highs.

The eurozone sovereign debt crisis has tested the covered bond product like never before. Katie Llanos-Small examines how covered bonds from the periphery have performed during the crisis, and asks what might happen if a eurozone sovereign were to default.

Secondary market activity has been focused on Spain lately with end account selling noted in multi-cédulas and single names which, among others, have included BBVA. Though it’s technically possible for the issuer to bring a deal flat to the underlying government, some bankers think that the funding window may have passed, albeit temporarily.

Moody’s took rating action on the covered bonds of three issuers on Monday, downgrading the deals issued by Santander Totta, and Caxia Geral de Depósitos, while placing those issued by Marfin Popular Bank on negative review.

A new world order in debt markets could soon be ushered in with the first covered bond new issue to be priced through domestic government bonds, investors and bankers were forecasting this week.

Amid growing concern over peripheral euro sovereigns, covered bond analysts are focusing on the exposure to the troubled periphery of public sector cover pools in core jurisdictions.

All Portuguese benchmark deals now trade inside government bonds.

After two weeks without benchmark issuance market participants are looking past the UK royal wedding and May Day holiday to a resumption of primary market activity on Tuesday. Syndicate officials were modest in their expectations however as, with peripheral markets effectively closed and some core names in blackout, prospective issuance from for core jurisdictions appears sparse.

Distressed Portuguese and Irish issuers could have the option to postpone the repayment of maturing covered bonds, according to UniCredit analysis, due to ambiguous wording about failure to pay the final redemption amount.

Moody’s cut the covered bond ratings of seven Portuguese banks on Friday following downgrades of the issuers’ senior unsecured ratings on April 6, which followed a downgrade of Portugal’s sovereign debt rating the day before.

Portuguese banks, with Eu13bn of bonds maturing in 2011, are fast approaching the first anniversary since any of their number last sold a benchmark bond, causing consternation among bankers and putting the spotlight on the European Central Bank ahead of a potential tightening in its provision of liquidity.

Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen GZ had the market to itself on Monday, launching its second floating rate covered bond of the year. Though there was a mandate announcement from Caisse de Refinancement de l’Habitat, primary activity has begun to lessen. Nevertheless, names from further afield are on the horizon, with Portuguese national champions watching the market closely and New Zealand’s Westpac expected in the next few days.