Portugal

Portugal’s Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD) bought €908m of its own covered bonds, representing 29% of the outstanding. This is the second highest take up of a covered bond tender and well above the level that the borrower had aimed for. Millennium BCP’s tender, due next week should have an equally strong result.

Although the technical market backdrop continues to look strong, fundamental concerns lurk just below the surface. In the last 48 hours both Pimco and the prime minister of Luxembourg have raised concerns about the outlook for Greece and the rest of Europe. Against this backdrop, German Pandbriefe cover pools are still exposed to peripheral Europe, latest analysis shows.

The performance of cover pools has deteriorated, Crédit Agricole research has found after examining Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch’s data. But this is not because of worsening credit risk but rather because of market risk.

In a flurry of activity that offered another glimpse of the spare cash washing around the European banking sector after the ECB’s first Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) in December, Spain’s CatalunyaCaixa and Banco Popular Español launched tender offers this week, buying back ABS, covered bonds and hybrids.

When National Bank of Greece announced a buyback last month, many market participants felt it would be a one off. But soon after Portugal’s BPI launched its own tender and because that market is slightly bigger, bankers said a handful of issuers might well consider a similar exercise. Now Spain’s Caixabank has followed suit by announcing a tender. Given the large €360bn size of the Cédulas market, it’s fair to assume that the potential for ALM exercises is much greater than had previously been assumed.

Portugal’s Banco BPI launched the second covered bond tender of the year on Thursday and market participants expect more to follow ahead of the second Long Term Refinancing Operation in February.

Portuguese and Irish issuers could follow National Bank of Greece and tender covered bonds ahead of the next ECB Long Term Refinancing Operation in February. Even if participation is half that of NBG’s recent buyback operation, the capital increase could make a compelling argument.

Covered bond spreads have survived sweeping sovereign downgrades by Standard & Poor’s on Friday. Only French issuer Dexia was reported wider on Monday morning, while the LTRO cash injection has ensured short dated Spanish and French paper remains highly sought after.

As a result of deal announcements and the new issue premium, secondary market turnover has been hit, with spreads moving on little volume. Curves have conspicuously steepened in France but DexMA remains out of line.

Unless sovereign debt market volatility subsides, it seems likely that publicly placed covered bond financing could remain shut for peripheral issuers in 2012, potentially forcing Spanish and Italian banks into the same category as Portuguese and Greek banks which were unable to access the market at all last year.

Fitch has downgraded mortgage backed covered bonds issued by three Portuguese banks, highlighting the risk of peripheral covered bonds falling below the rating threshold for ECB repo eligibility. Issuers still shut out of the market are heavily reliant upon repo funding, and further downgrades could force the ECB to adjust its criteria, though DBRS has offered a lifeline to at least one Portuguese bank.

Stress in bank funding markets, exposure to troubled eurozone sovereign bond markets and moves away from implicit government support have affected the creditworthiness of many global banks. But Standard & Poor’s approach to covered bond ratings means they should remain resilient compared to other agencies.