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Recent Länder trades shed some light on primary market for covered bonds
Supply could quickly resume if conditions stabilise
Trading activity and primary performance show covered bond robustness
The gap is closing thanks to covered undersupply but there will be a floor as relative value starts to make little sense
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Investors likely to shun covered bonds for similarly priced — but better treated — SSA deals -
Wider swap spreads provide French covered bonds a buffer against competing SSA levels
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◆ Bund-swap spread hits single digits ◆ Tight levels put pressure on Pfandbrief spreads ◆ Further 'expensive' covered supply unlikely
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◆ Low redemptions led to lower supply in 2024 ◆ Canadian banks could return to refi ◆ Dollar supply to more than double in 2025
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Abnormal trend expected to continue posing question for FIG treasury officials
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Investors would rather buy SSAs than covereds, say bankers
