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The euro covered bond market shook off a volatile end to 2024 to rebound with a raft of exceptionally popular deals in 2025. Investors appeared eager to pile into euro covered bond books this year, propelling bid-to-cover ratios upwards and new issue premium downwards, writes Frank Jackman
Covered bond funders will have to weave their way through tight senior unsecured and wide SSA spreads in 2026 if they are to refinance the wave of redemptions that awaits them. One big question for the year ahead, discovers Frank Jackman, is whether issuers will be tempted to pay up for duration
Implementation could push covered spreads closer to govvies and SSAs
Covered bond redemptions are set to increase by €20bn next year and €30bn in 2027
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Strong demand for slim supply could tempt issuers to access the market before Christmas -
No investors involved in Caffil's latest deal mentioned concerns over French risk
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Issuers' desire to put covered pre-funding to one side suggests concerns over bumps ahead
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Absence of new bonds to help secondary spreads grind tighter
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Five and 10 years more appealing, with ultra-long spreads deemed 'rather costly'
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Scarcity value helps to drive premiums down and cover ratios up
