Tunisia
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The government has scraped together enough funding to get by, but some analysts still see chance of ‘messy’ crisis -
Egypt and Tunisia are in a stickier state than Kenya but investors expect them to survive near-term
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Sovereigns have managed to source other financing while bond markets have closed to them
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Without an IMF deal Tunisia will struggle to get any more funding from bilateral partners
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Meanwhile, Egypt is nearing its own IMF deal but should not need to restructure its debts
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The north African country thought to have no access to international debt capital markets
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Days after the Tunisian President Kais Saied shocked the world by freezing parliament and boosting his executive power, sources say that investors have little to be concerned about as conversations with the IMF continue to progress. The political saga, which some are calling ‘much-needed’, will not impact Tunisia’s ability to service its debt.
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A decade after the Arab Spring erupted in Tunisia, the country has found itself once again in the throes of a political crisis, sending shockwaves through investors. The president’s abrupt seizing of executive power — which some have labelled a coup — poses yet another challenge for the country, though some said there may be buying opportunities on the horizon.
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As its debt-to-GDP ratio inflates and its public finances come under pressure, some have wondered if Tunisia will succumb to a debt restructuring process. But the governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia, Marouane El Abassi, told GlobalCapital that the country is intent on securing new IMF funding as a prerequisite to entering capital markets.
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Tunisia, one of the latest emerging market countries to fall into the grips of crisis, is facing myriad problems following its prime minister’s shock resignation this week. Though the government has approached sovereign creditors for debt relief, some say it may have more trouble obtaining payment holidays on its existing bonds, as the private sector debt relief debate for emerging markets brews.
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The Republic of Tunisia printed a tight €700m 6.375% 2026 bond on Wednesday from a book of nearly €2bn. A syndicate manager away from the deal said it was a good demonstration of the enthusiasm for emerging market credit.
