The FIG Idea
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As Marcella climbed into the transport pod for her short journey home to her cosy apartment in the Chongqing suburbs, her wristwatch buzzed, reminding her that this would be her last ever commute. She leaned back and thought of the days when she started out in banking, in 2007, right at the start of GFC1, the first Global Financial Crisis. In her 43 year career, how the world had changed.
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Do we marvel enough at the philosophical and metaphysical nature of the banking industry?
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We need to talk about capital. But language makes it difficult.
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The FIG Idea studies the form for bank capital's most important competition of the year — set to run this October (or perhaps not). -
When Banco Popular lost the market's confidence, it ran out of road. Realistic assumptions for recovery rates on bad assets plunged to super-conservative levels. Confidence is the greatest form of solvency, its withdrawal a precursor to insolvency.
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Soon, banks will have more TLAC and MREL than equity. The new bond classes are a immensely important part of the financial structure of a bank, but the risks to investors aren’t yet clear. Just how will this alien new instrument class behave — or misbehave?
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On the surface, stress tests seem arcane and disconnected from reality. Perhaps they are, but they’re an increasingly important tool for bank regulators around the world.
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Bank stocks are up 50% from their 2009 lows, but down 30% since a year ago and down 70% from their all-time highs in early 2007. Many equity investors from a decade ago lost their shirt in the banks sector. They can blame macroeconomic shifts for some of this price volatility. But a lot of it is because "the market" doesn't do a great job valuing bank stocks.
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Today’s capital regime for banks is the result of compromise and incrementalism. Hardly a surprise, but the result is unworkable. CFA-qualified, brain-on-a-stick analysts will breeze through a series of 3D Sudoku puzzles, yet struggle to understand the capital situation of a bank.
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Banks are doing whatever they can to attract some tech company glamour. JP Morgan's CFO Marianne Lake claimed the bank was a tech firm at its investor day on Tuesday. Lloyd Blankfein has made the same claim for Goldman Sachs. Now every self-respecting bulge bracket firm has an in-house incubator — even Commerzbank has a couple. Banks are desperate to inject some Silicon Valley sparkle.
