Squeezing the brakes

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Squeezing the brakes

Young woman's hands on the brakes of a road bike

ABS primary slows down, but George Smith and Tom Hall discuss one issuer bucking the trend and whether secondary selling has been orderly



The long weekend in the UK comes at a welcome moment for the GlobalCapital Securitization team, after frenetic run in to Easter, with deals delayed, regulatory shocks and even new asset classes emerging.

In his book The Misbehaviour of Markets, mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot describes the concept of trading time.

Everyone in capital markets will intuitively grasp the idea. Time flies during high volatility. Weeks worth of market movements happen in mere hours. The clock has certainly been moving quickly lately.

Arguably the market could also do with the reset. CLO supply has dried up and ABS supply has certainly slowed, as uncertainty makes pricing difficult.

In the view of investors, risk is probably being more sensibly priced now, but that means issuers will have to get used to wider spreads for a bit. The positive is that, despite the sharp spread movement, the market is still open with both sides still keen to transact.

A bit of time to take stock might be just what is needed.

So if you're an optimist there's plenty of reason to hope for a lively restart after the break. Or it could all be derailed by further volatility.

Enjoy the break while it lasts.

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