In a Europe where currency arbitrage has all but disappeared since the advent of the euro, investors are forced to look elsewhere for good returns. One option available to them is to tap into credits from emerging markets. Despite the crisis in Brazil, investors are keen to consider Latin American credits as a good alternative to mainstream investment-grade borrowers. According to Andrew Dell, director, debt syndicate at ING Bank, the uncertainty surrounding Brazil has not spread across the continent quite as much as was first feared. He says: "Latin America has always been the bedrock of emerging market business and it still sees some good flows. The region is attracting demand from focused investors." Dell explains how the interest in Latin American borrowers is part of a wider focus on credit. He says: "Despite the various shocks experienced in Asia, Russia and to a lesser extent Brazil, there will always be demand for higher yielding assets. There will be enhanced interest in emerging credit stories, especially given the low returns available in core developed markets." However, the number of Latin American borrowers active in the Euro-MTN market has contracted because of the financial turmoil in Brazil. According to MTNWare, $15.41 billion was issued from Latin American borrowers off 228 issues in 1998. This compares to $16.58 billion in 1997 from 323 issues. Investor demand is selective and favours only those borrowers considered to be relatively safe bets. Those borrowers most active are sovereigns, like Republic of Argentina, quasi-sovereigns, like Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and top rated corporates like Telefonica de Argentina. Many of these borrowers are waiting for spreads to come in before issuing. Dell, at ING Bank, warns that they can't wait forever to access the market. He says: "Issuers have to be realistic about pricing. They should look at what secondary levels are being offered and price accordingly. They should also be accommodating with structures to make sure the investor is always adequately rewarded for the various risks." Minimising the risk associated with borrowers from the sector is vital for attracting investors in 1999. Carlos Mauleon, who is in charge of debt capital markets for Latin America at Lehman Brothers, thinks issuers' Euro-MTN issues should incorporate structures like options, puts and exchangeables to add flexibility. He says: "Issuers as well as investors have become familiar with these structures and are better able to price them. Embedded options or warrants provide investors with an additional incentive or kicker to purchase the securities." It is also important for these issuers to take advantage of good opportunities wherever they originate from. One dealer says: "Latin American issuers have got to be agile. They must be prepared to be ready to come to market on a reverse enquiry basis." Likewise, investors are advised not to dismiss emerging market borrowers too easily. One market participant says: "Investors should be aware that there are a number of Latin American borrowers willing to issue. So they should be prepared to consider any of those that suit their portfolio." Not all Latin American borrowers have had to tiptoe through the international capital markets. Mexico has remained somewhat insulated from the Brazilian crisis. Richard Ludington, head of emerging markets syndicate desk at JP Morgan, says: "Mexico has disassociated itself from the rest of Latin America to a large extent. This is due in large part to its close links with the US economy, which continue to be strong." This has helped Mexico's state-owned integrated oil company, Pemex, to maintain its strong position in the Euro-MTN market as a safe emerging markets credit. It has $3.21 billion outstanding off 8 issues made since it signed its $1.5 billion Euro-MTN in February last year. Ludington, at JP Morgan, says: "Sovereign bonds from Mexico have been relatively scarce in the international capital markets in recent months. Pemex has been able to take advantage of this to service its large funding needs." Pemex' funding strategy has changed since it set up its Euro-MTN facility. Ludington explains: "Traditionally Pemex has accessed the market as a standalone issuer but to some extent, it was held hostage to Mexico's status as an emerging market. "However, it has now issued two major securitized transactions which has enabled credit rating enhancement. Pemex has thus been able to tap tighter spreads as a result. This is a material change in its funding strategy." Latin American issuers are encouraged to look to the Euro-MTN market as a source of funds and, with market volatility continuing, those borrowers which have an MTN programme in place will be better positioned to access it quickly. This advice is relevant for both sovereigns and corporates. However, Mauleon, at Lehman Brothers, also points out: "Most Latin American corporates with the exception of YPF, Cemex, Telecom Argentina and maybe a few others, tend to fund via stand alone issues. One of the constraints for the development of a larger MTN market for Latin American corporates is secondary market liquidity." This is all part of the general evolution of global investor demand for lower rated credits. A trend has developed showing a significant increase in demand for notes with optionality or warrants.
July 28, 2000