The telecom sector is in the limelight, as M&A activity persists. Added to this is the UK licences auction for next generation mobile phones, where the six remaining companies are bidding for five licences. Investors could stand to make large gains. However, the phrase event risk is on everyone's lips, usually with negative connotations. The Mannesmann deal shook investor confidence and the general consensus is that caution is needed. With more M&A activity to come, will MTN issuers be sticking to the public markets, and could investors be in for a rough ride? Despite the threat that event risk poses to investor interest, the telecom sector is growing at a phenomenal pace. Issues in 1999 amounted to $16.61 billion off 46 trades compared with $5.56 billion off 24 trades in 1998. Issuance by telecom companies in the first quarter of 2000 has already reached $9.71 billion off 23 trades and if this continues, 2000 will be twice the size of 1999 in terms of issuance. Warburg Dillon Read (WDR), one of the top dealers off telecom programmes, does not see event risk as a big problem. Gavin Eddy, executive director, head of Euro-MTNs at WDR, believes that investors want to buy telecom notes because the market is developing so quickly. He says: "There probably isn't a more exciting sector at the moment and investors want exposure to it." But Eddy admits that risk from M&A activity cannot be ignored, although he thinks that investor confidence has been restored. He says: "AOL and Time Warner type deals may become typical of the telecom sector, with more high-tech and media companies merging with telecom companies. It's a unique sector and it's consolidating very quickly. It's a sector where there is very large event risk but investors are willing to accept this." Tecnost signed a euro10 billion ($9.53 billion) Euro-MTN programme for Olivetti in July, last year, and it now has the second largest outstanding issuance in the sector at $5.68 billion. The programme was set up specifically for M&A activity. Luciano La Noce, director of corporate finance at Tecnost, says: "We set the programme up for flexibility. We have not used it much yet but our two large issues in the public market had to meet important deadlines for the Telecom Italia takeover." Only France Telecom, Europe's second biggest telephone company, has issued more. After a spate of issuance this month, the company has now raised $6.67 billion, mostly by public trades. But the threat of credit downgrading has not posed a problem for the MTN market's most active telecom issuers. La Noce says: "The Mannesmann deal last year created unrest among investors, and then there was Orange too. The market realizes there is event risk. This is reflected in pricing, but there has been no drop in credit quality. We have not felt any adverse effects of investors' fear of event risk and we have had no trouble selling our paper." Sonera signed its euro2 billion MTN shelf in May 1999 and is not concerned about the effect a ratings decrease could have. Pekka Reijonen, treasurer at Sonera, says: "Obviously event risk was a key issue for investors. But investors are aware of this and they can judge for themselves based on individual company names, ratings, strategy and history." Despite this, Sonera is not shy of being acquisitive and announced plans on April 18 to buy the Swedish software company Across Wireless. Lehman Brothers has arranged four programmes for telecom companies, including Tecnost's, the sector's biggest MTN programme. Julia Ward, director, head of MTN origination at Lehman Brothers, agrees that M&A activity in the telecom sector has had an effect on the market. She says: "Consolidation in the sector may lead to some existing programmes disappearing. However, new programmes will be set up and in many cases the issue proceeds will be used to fuel M&A activity." But signings are slowing down. Five telecom companies entered the MTN market in 1999, but in the last six months there has been only one: Cable & Wireless Optus. Issuance from telecoms has increased, although this has been mainly in the public market. In the past month there have been 14 trades from the sector and eight were issued by France Telecom. Daniel Cogoi, head of Euro-MTNs at BNP Paribas Group says: "Acquisitions have fuelled the volume of issuance in the telecom sector. The need to raise large amounts quickly leads issuers to the public syndicated markets as opposed to the often cheaper private MTN market. Despite this, the telecom sector should witness significant growth in the private MTN market as it seeks to refinance existing debt." However, issuance in the private market, according to MTNWeek league table criteria, during 1999 and 2000 amounts to only $2.26 billion off 28 trades. This accounts for only 8.53 per cent of total MTN issuance by telecoms. This is confirmed by Tecnost, who intends to use its MTN programme again in 2001 and 2002 to restructure its outstanding debt. La Noce says: "We will probably use the public market because of the size of issue required, but private trades are also a possibility." Eddy also predicts that the public trades will dominate, but for another reason. He says: "With the current auctions of the third generation mobile licences in the UK, we are likely to see heavy telecom issuance in the public markets in the coming weeks. This is already causing some weakness in the secondary spreads."
August 04, 2000