Greece

National Bank of Greece is set to increase its core tier one capital by buying back its only covered bond alongside several tier one notes in a tender operation launched on Tuesday. The exercise is controversial, with some covered bond participants arguing that the modest tender price differential between the two instruments is not justified and that this undermines the intrinsic relative value of the covered bond.

Unless sovereign debt market volatility subsides, it seems likely that publicly placed covered bond financing could remain shut for peripheral issuers in 2012, potentially forcing Spanish and Italian banks into the same category as Portuguese and Greek banks which were unable to access the market at all last year.

Caisse de Refinancement de l'Habitat on Wednesday morning presented the ECB with only its second opportunity to make a primary purchase under the central bank's second covered bond purchase programme. Following in the footsteps of Crédit Mutuel Arkéa — the only other issuer to have done a deal qualifying for support in the primary market — CRH launched an extension of an outstanding 10 year trade at the widest level for French paper this year.

The risk of a disorderly Greek default has prompted Moody’s to place four of the country’s covered bond programmes on review for downgrade. Three of the programmes are already rated Ba3, though BBB- ratings from Fitch should still ensure repo access.

The impact of the ECB’s second purchase programme could be lessened considerably by renewed volatility in the markets. Equity and fixed income indices plummeted on Tuesday morning, wiping out at a stroke the positive reaction seen at the end of last week to the European summit meetings that had attempted to inject some confidence back into markets.

A major covered bond investor talks to The Cover about the ECB’s purchase programme and what could follow. He does not think it will adopt a needs-based approach and suspects that a prospective spread tightening will be short-lived.

The concept of liquidity has changed over the course of the financial crisis. Where once it may have been viewed as a free ticket, it is now highly valued — for without liquidity there cannot be a market. Covered bonds are comfortably at the most liquid end of the credit spectrum, but the way they are traded has completely changed since the onset of the financial crisis.

Moody’s has cut its rating of covered bonds issued by EFG Eurobank Ergasias from Ba3 to B1, on review for downgrade, although the bonds remain eligible for repo with the ECB as they are still rated BBB- by Fitch.

ssuers will need to pick their timing carefully this week given German holidays on Monday, along with an Ecofin meeting in Luxembourg, a decision on another round of covered bond buying to be taken at Thursday’s ECB policy meeting and US non-farm payrolls on Friday.

German, French and UK issuers launched trades on Tuesday as indices tightened and stock markets rose on hopes that a solution to the eurozone debt crisis had been outlined over the weekend.

European bond markets reacted poorly to the no-committal anodyne ECOFIN meeting in Poland and the Berlin election result over the week end with the Bund yield predictably gapping lower on Monday. Credit markets followed suit with the iTraxx Senior Financials ending +24bp at 286bp and the SovX W Europe finishing +13bp at 338bp. But the moves lacked conviction and the jury is out as to whether the primary market will remain closed.

Markets opened poorly on Monday morning and hit record wides in some indices, after concerns about Greece’s ability to meet its austerity commitments dominated weekend headlines. Syndicate bankers touted Tuesday as the day to bring a deal if market conditions were constructive, but the volatility means they expect no primary supply this week.