Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has radically altered the balance of power in Central Asia, creating opportunities for some nations but for others, fear of losing sway in a strategically important and ethnically complex region, according to analysts.
Although Russia remains the region’s main power, its commitment to a war that many commentators believe it is losing has diverted its attention, they said.
“Russian power is receding in the region,” said Andrew D’Anieri, an assistant director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Centre. “It doesn’t have as much to offer, and its future as an economic and geopolitical partner is weakened by sanctions.”
Threats by Putin loyalists to annex Russian-speaking parts of northern Kazakhstan are no longer taken seriously. When Armenia and Azerbaijan clashed in the wake of Russia’s chaotic withdrawal from Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, D’Anieri viewed it as a “sign that Azerbaijan saw Armenia’s patron as weakened”.
Also notable were Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan forces, during fresh border skirmishes in September, fighting with weapons made not in Russia, but Turkey and Iran.
Signs of Russia’s fallen star abound. Last month, Russian president Vladimir Putin was made to wait for a meeting with the president of Kyrgyzstan at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand. In June, Kazakh leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, keen to attract foreign capital to fund new infrastructure, told Putin he would not breach Western sanctions on the rogue state.
MULTIPLE WINNERS
If Russia is a loser in Central Asia, there are multiple winners and China is the obvious one. Its companies are redesigning Uzbekistan’s capital Samarkand, named the UN’s World Tourism Capital for 2023. President Xi Jinping’s attendance at the SCO marked his first foreign trip in nearly three years — a sign of the region’s importance to China.
Others are filling a power vacuum created by Russia’s bellicosity.
“Turkey is on an ascending trend again,” said Matthew Grey, a former UN advisor and director for ESG risk engagement in emerging markets (Eurasia) at Morningstar. “Turkish retail is making an aggressive push into the region. Turkish shows dominate TV.”
He also points to the Turkic Council set up by Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to boost regional ethnic and linguistic ties. Grey says this soft-power push is a “concern for Russia, which isn’t doing much to counter it”.
What is emerging is a more complex regional power structure with multiple powerbrokers. Turkey plays that role in the southwest; Pakistan oversees stability in southeast Iran and Afghanistan; while Iran floats in the background.