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Historic spread shift smacks valuations after German government falls apart. Market at 'most critical moment in 20 years'
German political instability push Bunds yields up, reducing prospects of a covered bond revival
Investors likely to shun covered bonds for similarly priced — but better treated — SSA deals
Wider swap spreads provide French covered bonds a buffer against competing SSA levels
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◆ Prefunding discussions to pick up in the autumn ◆ Elevated spreads are deterring supply ◆ US election will dictate demand -
◆ Average benchmark tenor up from 2023 ◆ Seven years proves popular ◆ Longer dated deals look unlikely
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◆ New issue premiums return to euro covered issuance ◆ Issuers unable to tighten despite wider starting spreads ◆ French covered spreads could tighten
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◆ German banks raced out of the blocks this year ◆ Slower loan book growth to damp supply ◆ Pfandbrief spreads unlikely to tighten
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Pfandbrief lender plans only two weeks of marketing, down from the eight needed by KfW
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◆ New legislation will drive supply ◆ Covered bonds become a crucial part of Polish funding mix ◆ Up to €1bn of fresh paper expected this year
