Comment EM and The Cover

The economic devastation has made an absolute mockery of predicting corporate earnings and therefore, equity valuation. Companies have given up on providing forward guidance leaving equity investors in the strange position of having to pick stocks without the earnings estimates that they have come to depend upon. Undoubtedly, this makes their work harder but it will also mean they must add to their repertoire of techniques for analysing companies. Many will flounder but a few are bound to shine.

When Ecopetrol, which has been talking about bringing a bond for a long time, chose to do so last Friday, after an oil price crash in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, it took the market aback. Fridays, after all, are not when any self-respecting Latin American bond issuer comes to the market. But there is nothing typical about Latin America’s primary markets these days.

Whole industries are on their knees, desperate for salvation from governments. Moral outrage fills the air, as fortune's wheel turns plutocrats into mendicants. States have the power of life and death — but they must resist the temptation to play God.

When Ecopetrol, which has been talking about bringing a bond for an absolute age, chose to do so last Friday after an oil price crash and in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, it took the market aback. Fridays after all, are not typically when any self-respecting Latin American bond issuer comes to the market. But there is nothing typical about Lat Am primary markets these days.

From Italian government bonds to fallen angels, nothing is junk unless the European Central Bank says so.

Firms can spend vast amounts of time window-dressing their balance sheets to look the best they possibly can within the limits of reporting regulations. Within those limits, everything goes.

Do investors matter in China’s bond market? Not much, judging by a recent series of bondholder meetings. HNA Group Co and Gemdale are the latest companies to push their luck. It is time for regulators to push back.

For many years, corporate debt investors have scratched their heads and wondered: will anything, ever, cause the returns on bonds to go back to normal again?

The way Asian states including China have dealt with the coronavirus has put Europe and the US in the shade — now they should lead the international financial fightback.

Armies of wonks have spent the last 10 years dreaming up a panoply of bank capital tools, from additional tier one capital to MREL, to make sure “too big to fail” can never happen again. Next time, they claimed, private investors’ capital would be burnt in an orderly process, saving taxpayers from bailing out banks.

If regulators won’t turn off banks' additional tier one capital coupons during the coronavirus crisis, they will never find reason to.

Saudi Aramco’s IPO last year was a historic event for the company and its owner, Saudi Arabia, but despite a record $29.4bn being raised at IPO, international investors stayed away. They had demanded that the shares offered a discount to other listed oil majors, in part because of the political risk associated with the company. The fact it is now a tool in Saudi Arabia’s oil price war with Russia will have vindicated many in their decision to sit out the deal.