Supranationals and agencies, including the multilateral development banks and national and regional development banks, are going through a period of profound change.

There is enormous demand for their services, to keep global goals of fighting poverty and climate change within reach. But developed countries are reluctant to provide all the capital required.

Since 2022 the sector has been plunged into a process of self-examination about how public sector banks can lend more with the capital they already have.

This has led to a wave of reforms and financial innovations, ranging from changes in leverage ratios through rating agencies rethinking their methodologies to hybrid capital issuance, securitization and portfolio insurance.

In February GlobalCapital held a GC Live briefing in London for specialists in this area, sponsored by Moody’s, bringing together MDB funding and risk experts, investors and insurance professionals.

The first two half hour panel discussions were on the record and you can read them here. The first covers issues including the value of callable capital, the nascent public market for MDB hybrid debt, the growth in development banks’ firepower and how to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different forms of capital relief.

Andrew Cross, chief financial officer, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Maria Kartcheva, head of ALM and financial structuring, European Stability Mechanism

Kathrin Muehlbronner, senior vice-president and global MDB lead, Moody’s Ratings

William Perraudin, managing director, Risk Control Ltd

Omar Sefiani, treasurer, African Development Bank

Moderator: Toby Fildes, managing director, GlobalCapital

Record order books have greeted sovereign, supranational and agency bond issuers in the early months of 2025, with the prospect of continued strong demand for the rest of the year. However, volatile swap spreads have been a feature of the market at the same time. While this is positive for investor demand, it only makes accurate pricing more difficult for issuers. Added to that, US regulatory uncertainty, French government woes and electoral upheaval in the EU’s biggest economy, Germany, and the only certainty about 2025 is set to be its unpredictability.

To discuss what the rest of the year holds, GlobalCapital convened a panel of leading experts, who were eager to discuss topics such as front-loading, MDBs and the impact of President Trump’s tariffs.

Conrad Baker, managing director, head of SSA syndicate, Nomura

Jörg Graupner, senior funding manager, treasury, KfW

Ales Koutny, head of international rates — active fixed income, Vanguard Asset Management

Isabelle Laurent, deputy treasurer and head of funding, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Moderator: Addison Gong, SSA editor, GlobalCapital