Christie Ju believes property investors shouldn’t pin too much hope on policy loosening from the government, and that shopping malls will continue to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the shift in China from an export-driven economy to one that centres on domestic consumption.
Winner of both our best real estate and best conglomerates analyst categories for two years in a row, Ju impressed investors with her insight into the China property sector.
In the first half of the year, Chinese property developers had a strong run amid expectations of stimulus from the government but as transaction volumes began to surge, particularly in Tier I cities, Ju released a report suggesting that the central government would not tolerate the upward trajectory for much longer.
“One of the best calls we made this year was that the government’s tightening policy will continue to dampen the market and it’s unlikely to have the whole sector up in a significant way. That turned out to be quite right,” she says.
As such, Ju picked high quality developers in both the commercial and retail property segments, including shopping malls builders. She believes that these will continue to perform as new malls increasingly make an earnings contribution.
“The business model is still quite new in China but we are the first ones to look into the ones doing well in the shopping mall sector, and also we expanded our coverage to include stock like Helong Property and Capital Mall Asia, which have a significant presence outside of China. Those are the names to own on a long-term basis that will continue to attract good traffic flow,” says Ju.
A similar same theme continues into conglomerates, which are a proxy for the Chinese economy. “Buy domestic consumption and avoid export related stock is, simply put, the theme of our conglomerate call,” Ju says.
Given her ongoing popularity, investors will be keen to discover what companies Ju next predicts to outperform.