The deal would cement another milestone for the sovereign, further demonstrating its access to private capital on its road back from bailout.
Syndicate bankers had hoped for a deal in late August or early September, which evidently did not come to fruition due to volatility in the emerging markets — precipitated largely by neighbouring Turkey — and ructions from Italy.
Analysts and bankers say Greece needs the “perfect” backdrop for its bond market return. But does it? You only have to look at the sovereign’s last syndicated benchmark deal in February, which was issued as extreme volatility gripped the US equity market.
That deal was over two times subscribed and, despite selling off by two to three cash points a few days later — which bankers attributed to hedge funds who had bought the deal in primary — it was considered a success. It showed Greece could do a syndication in a tricky market.
Waiting until this bout of volatility disappears makes no sense.
The biggest risk event in peripheral Europe is Italy’s 2019 budget and whether it will comply with European Union rules. But the budget will not be submitted to the European Commission until mid-October, leaving just a handful of weeks to issue before the end of the year thereafter.
Greece need not keep its powder dry for what could be just as volatile a period, if not worse.