Unlike before the Brexit referendum in June, when market participants convinced themselves the sane result was going to occur, this time they are more pessimistic.
The dollar has lost two cents against the euro since last Wednesday, while the S&P 500 has fallen 3.1% in eight days.
US Treasury yields are harder to interpret. The 10 year has gone up and down but was 4.3bp tighter on the week on Thursday, at 1.81%.
Treasuries are normally a safe haven, but since Trump has threatened to default on US debt, and later mused about printing money to avoid default, he would hardly be good news for bondholders.
But this does not mean a Hillary Clinton loss is priced in. Many market participants still believe she will pull off a victory.
Stocks and the dollar should therefore rally smartly if she wins clearly.
But if Trump wins, there is likely to be a big and immediate sell-off in riskier assets. That might settle down quickly, as investors take the view that corporate profits and the centrality of the dollar do not immediately need reassessment. Nor is the US likely to default.
In that sense, the outcome is different from Brexit, which had one inevitable meaning: Britain would leave the EU, with likely serious damage to its economy.
But after the election, if Trump wins, expect a hair-raising ride. The stream of shocking utterances from his mouth would grow. Trump lives for attention, and would make the most of his moment. The news tapes would be dominated by his every outburst, and markets would swing wildly.