MIDDLE EAST BOND OF THE YEAR
Saudi Aramco
$2bn 5.25% July 2034
$2bn 5.75% July 2054
$2bn 5.875% July 2064
Active bookrunners: Citi, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, SNB Capital
Passive Bookrunners: Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, ANB Capital, Bank of America, Bank of China, BSF Capital, Emirates NBD, First Abu Dhabi Bank, GIB Capital, Mizuho, MUFG, Natixis, Riyad Capital, SMBC, Standard Chartered.
Saudi Aramco built a giant order book in July for its $6bn triple trancher, peaking at $31bn before settling at $23bn at reoffer, which the leads used to print a deal with almost no new issue concession.
Despite the tranche sizes being twice as big as some investors had anticipated, there was big spread tightening during bookbuilding: 35bp on the 2034s and 2054s, and 40bp on the 2064s.
Demand for the bonds was such that even going bigger and tighter did not stop each of the tranches trading at reoffer or higher the day after pricing — an incredible result for Aramco’s first deal since a sukuk in 2021 and its first new bond issue since 2020.
CEEMEA CORPORATE BOND OF THE YEAR
Air Baltic
€340m 14.5% August 2029
BNP Paribas, Citi, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, SEB
Air Baltic’s bond, which was sold in May, was one of the most challenging of the year to print. The spread on the note of 1,213bp over Bunds was the widest spread ever for a CEE corporate deal.
It was Air Baltic’s second attempt at printing the note, having previously tried in September 2023. The company had switched up its bank group since then and the final note was the result of a marketing effort that the leads described as “extensive”.
They pulled off a feat in positioning the paper as a short-term liquidity measure put in place as the company prepares to do an IPO and structured the deal as such, with a call date after two years.
The deal could be described as a blow-out — the final book was only $800m and the final yield of 14.5% was sky high. But it was printed at a time when appetite for EM high yield finally looked to be returning and was sold against the odds as a recovery story after the company had struggled though both the Covid pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.
CEE BOND OF THE YEAR
Republic of Poland
$1.5bn 4.625% March 2029
$3bn 5.125% September 2034
$3.5bn 5.5% March 2054
Citi, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Santander
Poland started the year set to be one of the largest EM sovereign issuers of 2024. The government had budgeted to issue just over €14bn-equivalent of bonds, over 50% more than in 2023, with much of that driven by $8bn of Eurobond redemptions coming due.
But with one huge outing in March of $8bn across three tranches, the sovereign relieved the pressure on its curve that it may have otherwise felt later in the year as investors waited for chunky deals to come. In January, it had already printed a dual tranche, raising €3.75bn.
The triple trancher in March was the most a CEE sovereign has ever raised in one go, beating $7bn from the Russian Federation in 2012. Poland picked a good window and moved fast. Priced intra-day, the bonds offered just 5bp-10bp of new issue premium on each tranche.
AFRICA DEAL OF THE YEAR
Republic of Benin
$750m 7.96% February 2038
Citi, JP Morgan, Société Générale
The return of African sovereigns to the primary market in 2024 was a welcome sight. Benin was the second to issue after Ivory Coast — which deserves an honourable mention for reopening African sovereign market after a gap of two years.
Benin’s trade was strong on many counts. The issuer tightened the yield from high 8% area to 8.375% and at $4bn the deal was many times subscribed.
But the most impressive aspect was that the bond was priced inside Ivory Coast’s trade, despite being lower rated and the country having a much smaller economy. Emerging market fund managers had predicted it would offer some premium to its better rated peer.
As the issuer’s first dollar bond, it became a must-buy for index followers, boosting demand. “Fabulous” was how one EM syndicate banker, who did not work on the deal, described Benin’s achievement.
The issuer also won plaudits for its roadshow and was described as one of the best presenters in Africa. Those slick slide decks paid off handsomely.
CEEMEA SOVEREIGN BOND OF THE YEAR
Emirate of Abu Dhabi
$1.75bn 4.875% April 2029
$1.5bn 5% April 2034
$1.75bn 5.5% April 2054
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Citi, First Abu Dhabi Bank, HSBC, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered
Abu Dhabi returned to the bond market in April, taking $5bn over three tranches. The book hit $23bn at one point, closing at $18bn.
The issuer paid a negative new issue premium — remarkable on such a big trade — in what was a very busy primary market.
But perhaps the most remarkable features were the spreads it paid. At 35bp and 45bp over US Treasuries, Abu Dhabi sold its five and 10 year tranches at the tightest spreads ever for an emerging market sovereign at those tenors.
Not only were those spreads tight but the issuer came through its own curve.
Some records do not last long. Just a month later, Qatar landed five and 10 year tranches 5bp inside Abu Dhabi. However, Abu Dhabi’s order book suffered only $5bn of attrition during execution, whereas Qatar had lost nearly half its peak orders of $13bn by the time it priced.
CEEMEA ISLAMIC DEAL OF THE YEAR
Turkey Wealth Fund
$750m 6.95% January 2030 sukuk
Bank ABC, BBVA, Bank of America, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD, First Abu Dhabi Bank, ING, JP Morgan, KFH Capital, Société Générale, Sharjah Islamic Bank, Standard Chartered
Turkey Wealth Fund, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, was a new entrant to the sukuk and bond markets in 2024. It proved to be popular in both, but it made new ground by offering the first ever sukuk from Turkey that was not from either the sovereign or one of the country’s Islamic banks.
Turkey’s banks and corporates had issued heavily all year, but they were all bonds. TWF offered something investors had not had from Turkey for a long time and this showed in execution of the trade in October.
TWF’s book was nearly 10 times the deal size and it was able to tighten pricing by well over 50bp from the initial level.
It also landed well inside its own bond curve, one of the key measures of success of a sukuk.
Further, demand for TWF’s sukuk debut did not stop after the day of execution. It rose a point in secondary trading the following day.
CEEMEA FINANCIAL INSTITUTION DEAL OF THE YEAR
Akbank
$600m 9.369% perpetual non-call 5.25 year AT1
Citi, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Emirates NBD, JP Morgan, MUFG, Standard Chartered
In March, Akbank was rewarded for its bravery with a $3.7bn book when it printed the first AT1 bond from Turkey in five years — also making it the first AT1 from a Turkish bank since the Credit Suisse write-down of its AT1s in 2023, which temporarily shuttered the market.
The Akbank note was sold at a yield of 9.375% after a thorough price discovery process, a level that was well inside the mid to high 9% area that some investors had indicated would be fair.
Akbank’s deal opened the floodgates for similar capital bonds from other Turkish banks, all of which were looking for capital after two years of extreme volatility and inflation in Turkey.
Although some later argued that pricing had been pushed too far because of a small sell-off in the immediate secondary market, the Akbank AT1 looked to be finishing the year at a cash price around 102, having been printed at par after an astonishing performance from Turkey more broadly in the capital markets.