It would be hard to call SSA issuers' decision to front-load their borrowing this year as anything other than a a good call.
Large issuers started early in the primary market to avoid what seemed to be the mother of risk events — a November US election starring Donald Trump.
As it turned out, Trump was not the only thing that made the autumn market tricky for SSA issuers — in fact it could well be argued that French and German politics were far more troublesome for the sector than what was going on in the US. It is in euros where a number of factors have combined to cheapen SSA bond valuations compared to swap rates.
Front-loading isn’t a new tactic by any means, and the prevailing sentiment is that SSA issuers won't be giving it up for next year either. They're a famously — and rightly — cautious bunch and there always seems to be something unpleasant lurking on the horizon that justifies bringing deals early.
But large public sector issuers really should consider making this year an exception when it comes to front-loading come January.
SSAs are trading at historically wide spreads to swaps in euros. How swap spreads for the asset class will develop in 2025 is uncertain, and even though there is a chance that things could get worse, there is also a good chance that spreads will tighten.
One thing that seems unavoidable is that there will be a greater quantum of European government bonds in circulation next year as the ECB ramps up quantitative tightening.
That won't do much for Bund-swap spreads, which have turned negative for the first time ever this month. But later in the year, it seems entirely plausible, if not certain, that the political machinations in France and Germany will have been resolved and that, respectively, their budget and economy could start to mend.
Meanwhile, we will know just how serious Trump really is about imposing the sort of tariffs that would be bad for Europe.
The tough bit about being a big SSA issuer is that you have to be out in the primary market in all weathers. Investors are conditioned to expect a steady stream of issuance throughout the year.
But therein lies a benefit too: it means there is no pressure to get so much done in one go, meaning you can take advantage of improving markets later in the year — especially if others have gone big early and there is little else for investors to buy.
Easing off on the gas in January and saving a few prints for later in the year could be in fact be the prudent route through 2025.