Following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election earlier this week, one US-based investor told GlobalCapital sincerely that he was feeling optimistic about the world because the president-elect “hates war”.
So far on the international stage, the president-elect has signalled that he will pursue an isolationist America first agenda and a swift end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Optimism has filtered through to the market, where investors are positioning themselves for an end to hostilities and the possible rehabilitation of Russia.
For instance, in Europe, the shares of Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) were trading up 7%-9% on Wednesday. The bank has a big eastern European presence and a Russian subsidiary. As of Thursday close, the stock was up 11.7% compared to the end of last week at €18.74.
Meanwhile, Ukraine sovereign bonds rallied throughout Wednesday and into Thursday as investors anticipated a potential peace deal. Furthermore, there have been market whispers of large Western banks trading in Russia once more, assuming an end to sanctions.
But what exactly Trump's second stint in the White House means for markets is not clear. Where Trump goes, the rest of the world might not follow. For now, the European Union remains resolute in face of Russian aggression. Just hours after Trump declared victory, EU defence commissioner-designate Andrius Kubilius told a hearing committee that the bloc must increase defence funding to counter Putin.
And as a result, those banking on a swift end to the war might be too hasty. RBI is still a European bank and subject to European regulations. And the EU remains committed to funding Ukraine.
Trump may be well placed to deliver on the pledge to end the war in Ukraine but as ever with this president-elect, the detail of the outcome may not match the expectations of the promise.