When it comes to equity capital markets, next year is shaping up to be the new this year.
This year was supposed to spark the revival of IPOs. But for those eager to come to the market in the second half of 2024, what may look like a sprawling six month window is really only a few weeks wide.
The IPO market has had a reality check. Long lead times and a long-only investor base that is selective and price sensitive have meant that cancellations, postponements and the odd poor performer have put a dampener on the comeback.
The unexpected French parliamentary elections, with the second round on Sunday, have left market participants expecting no further deals until September. And that doesn't leave long before the US election in November and what may prove a volatile time in the run-up to it.
It will be hard to build on the otherwise successful first half of the year for IPOs, with the listings of Galderma, Planisware and Renk.
A narrow window book-ended by periods of expected volatility suggests many more deals would be likely to go the way of Golden Goose than not.
So, here’s the reality: if you were hoping for an IPO splash in the coming months, it might be time to take up a new hobby. Failing that, maybe 2025 will be the year for IPOs after all.