Is Super Mario losing his bounce?

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Is Super Mario losing his bounce?

Draghi 2 1388

With central bankers, it is all in the nuance. “Do what we must” sounds an awful lot like “whatever it takes”, but as of Thursday it means a very different thing.

When ECB president Mario Draghi uttered the former phrase in relation to raising inflation two weeks ago, he had investors recalling the halcyon days of 2012 when he uttered the latter in relation to keeping the euro in existence.

In the months that followed “whatever it takes”, Draghi showed an uncanny ability to navigate interests as diverse as debt-riddled Italy and austere Germany, frequently overpromising and then overdelivering in equal measure.

As European stocks shed 3.6% and the euro climbed 2.7% against the dollar on Thursday afternoon, that shine started to dull. Was this a PR gaffe, a simple mis-step in communication? Or something more?

Draghi’s tone in his press conference was curious. He knew exactly what the assembled press, and the markets that were promptly reeling outside, were thinking. He had been unable to deliver what he promised.

He was asked more than once why he had underwhelmed. “We think this package is adequate,” he repeated. Having left his bazooka at home, he appeared to be straining at the shackles with his words. The extension of the quantitative easing programme indicated excess liquidity would continue for a “very, very long time”, while the majority for approval of the package was “very large… very large”.

That may still be the case, but for many the influence of the hawks on the council, and notably its German contingent of Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann and ECB board member Sabine Lautenschläger, is becoming a real worry.

Is Draghi keeping his powder dry in case more is required in 2016? Or is that influence growing and staying his trigger finger? The problem is these are two extremely disparate propositions.

Next time Draghi threatens to get the bazooka out, will the market care?

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