Predictions of disaster for EM — at least disaster linked to the eurozone or western banks — were mostly shown to be overblown. This should give hope to issuers and investors now worried about the EM jitters hurting their markets, and casting about for ways to prove they're not tainted.
Here is the emerging markets guide to surviving association with an undesirable asset class:
1. Use the word “decoupled”. A lot. Really, throw it in whenever you can, even when it doesn’t really make sense. It soothes people.
2. Point out to anyone who’ll listen that the US isn’t just one place. California is very different to Minnesota you know. So what do they mean when they say US credit is at risk? Be more specific with your predictions of Armageddon.
3. Same goes for EM. What exactly do you have exposure to? Being hugely overweight Poland isn’t the same as being overweight Brazil.
4. Publicly diversify or die. Sure some people might do business with dodgy corporates with high leverage, but you don’t. It’s not an [insert country name here] play, it’s an [insert sector name here] play.
And while we’re at it, here’s the sales spiel for why it’s still OK to buy EM:
1. You invest in ‘international’ corporates. Look, this telecoms company draws 12% of its revenues from a French subsidiary — it’s basically Western Europe. And look, not none, not one, but two ratings. That definitely triples the fund manager demand.
2. The dominance of emerging markets and the stats to prove it. Emerging economies account for 98.9% of World GDP and four of every five Twitter users, there’s more smartphones sold in Shanghai every day than in Western Europe in a year, and by 2020 the global economy will basically just be India and China — best invest early.
3. Frontier markets. Sure, the traditional EM powerhouses like China and Brazil are on their way out. But you’re ahead of the curve. Who wants Chinese property when you can go long the Lagos tech sector. It’s not a frontier market if it’s not “vibrant” and “entrepreneurial”.
4. It’s in the index. This $550m amortizing partially guaranteed state-energy company deal will be index eligible. You’d be stupid not to buy into it.