Oil-driven thirst for cash no MidEast game changer

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Oil-driven thirst for cash no MidEast game changer

This week brought the first of an expected rush of loans for Middle East banks, while Iraq is seeking a bond deal. Low oil prices mean a need for capital in the region, but it is not time for international dealers and investors to stampede there just yet.

There is no doubt that sovereign and corporate balance sheets will need shoring up, now that there is a whole lot less money coming in for each barrel of oil sold. Naturally, some have gone running to the capital markets. 

The two UAE banks seeking loans this week may have been spurred by another heel: local regulators tightening up liquid asset rules. But Saudi Arabia's plans to issue $27bn of bonds are clearly oil price-related. Bankers regularly blame the crude price for companies' need for finance and one key investor in the region went as far as to suggest this could lead to the internationalisation of Middle Eastern capital markets.

It is a compelling idea, and there are certainly enough international banks with staff on the ground, raring to introduce global money, sick of chasing micro-yields in developed markets, to local borrowers.

But before anyone gets carried away, there are reasons to suggest even this almighty cash grab won't lead to open season in the Middle East.

First, spending has been hacked back with brutal intensity to all but essential projects, so funding needs will be down. 

Second, as in the case of the Saudi government, much capital raising will be done locally. One way or another, there is still an ocean of cash sloshing around the Middle East. As much as global investors might want to join the party, they may not be invited.

Finally, there is the cost of dollar fundraising, which is growing for emerging market borrowers as local currencies worsen against the dollar.

There will certainly be opportunities to gain Middle East exposure in the coming months — just don't expect a deluge of debt from the dunes.

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