Last week when Naspers and Kazakhstan printed $5.2bn between then, it looked as though the CEEMEA market had grown up. Quick to react to a market free of Greek headlines, they moved fast and paid up to ensure successful deals. How naive we were!
This week, despite strong trading in those bonds, CEEMEA silence prevails. Only Georgia’s Rustavi Azot from Georgia and Ardshinbank from Armenia have joined Zambia from the EM stable and both deals were small. Slovenia printed €1.25bn too, but debate rages over whether that issuer can still be considered an EM credit.
Instead taking a golden chance, CEEMEA issuers have spent the week torturing syndicate desks over the last 5bp needed to print a deal despite this being one of the last couple of weeks before markets slow for the summer and borrowers enter blackouts. No print this week means probably waiting until September
Is this a case of delay and pray? After all, what a fine market awaits in September! US rate rises are likely and heaven knows what from Greece lurks around the corner. And those are just the macro risks. What of the primary market stampede as a herd of borrowers crowd the market at once?
Zambia — for all it has been punished by investors in recent months and for all the accusations that this new issue looks desperate — has made the right move in issuing now. Copper may be looking battered and the kwacha’s as weak as a kitten, but the African sovereign, is making making a better fist of tackling markets than many other issuers who could get away with much lower yields.