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Santander shows big AT1 deals work best alongside tender offers
◆ Favourable dollar market draws foreign and domestic FIG issuers ◆ NatWest chooses dollar for AT1 to achieve best post-swap cost ◆ String of senior issuance also offers rare five year FRN
◆ Barclays pushes 'very impressive' AT1 flat to fair value after becoming net negative AT1 issuer ◆ Pension Insurance Corp follows euro peers with tier two ◆ 'Horribly undersupplied' investors pile in orders
◆ Deal sizes demonstrate investors’ ample appetite for FIG subordination ◆ ING tier two clears at FV while riskier Santander and Erste AT1s come with ‘strategic’ premium ◆ Both euro AT1 issuers launch simultaneous tenders ahead of AT1 calls
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Optimism rebounds after recent new issues were priced through fair value once more — but some parts of the curve could be more open than others
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◆ Both transactions land below fair value ◆ Appetite for tier two shows ‘market in good shape’
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◆ French bank pulled its €500m capital funding in early January amid crowded market ◆ New deal offers some call premium compared to the earlier bullet note ◆ Clears with up to 5bp-10bp new issue premium
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New issue premiums increased in the second half of April amid shifting rates expectations
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◆ Issuance may be concentrated on Tuesday after a single deal on Monday ◆ Prospects for euro paper brighter than dollars ◆ AT1s in any currency likely to do well in this market
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European financial institutions — already facing a narrow issuance window over the next couple of weeks — must also navigate renewed rates volatility